PV industry relying much on subsidy policy may encounter a cluster of wave each time when policy has to be adjusted. In recent 10 years, PV industry has gone through ups and downs and depended much on policy. This just forces PV industry to both love and hate subsidy. So grid parity is always concerned by grid parity, while support on subsidy can’t be removed.
Policy adjustment was always carried out at the end of the year. While in 2018, too fast scale development was restrained by the 5.31 New Announcement and then there was no mitigation period. The new announcement was just like a sudden brake on PV industry. The severe consequence was like severe accidents — cliff falling in the industry. The PV industry which was hot years ago suddenly stepped into cold winter, resulting in serious damage.
Going through this policy adjustment, PV industry really had suffered pain and the last adult “baptism” before grid parity. Then it will grow, and transform to a very common energy form beside us.
Residential PV need subsidy urgently
As for the content of New Announcement, what’s unbelievable is that the residential PV is within the control range of 10GW. PV projects cutting off the subsidy have been severely affected. In recent months, residential PV is basically stagnated and relatively many projects with problems have been remained, hiding many hazards. What comforts people is that some make-up policies have been released to prevent lack of confidence in PV industry from the citizens.
Generally speaking, when residential PV isn’t mature enough, the installation capacity will fall in cliff type if subsidy is directly cut off. More policy support will be needed for residential PV to recover the grand view as in the past. This is what the PV insiders just expect.
PV industry expected to be mature
There is also another group of people with the same view in the industry — people just expect to relieve subsidy as soon as possible. Representative of this group of people is CEO of Xiexin, Zhu Gongshan. In the 2018 Development of Intelligent Energy Summit held on Oct. 9th, Mr. Zhu stated that wind energy and solar energy in 2019 won’t need national subsidy basically. As Xiexin Group is currently a leading group in PV industry, Mr. Zhu’s statement may be persuasive for policy makers.
PV industry is just stepping faster to become mature and we expect decision makers to reduce the cost as fast as possible to make PV industry realize grid parity soon.
Guess on subsidy in 2019
We’re embracing the end of the year 2018 again, also the period for policy adjustment. In this period, each national act is related with policies in the next year. Then how will be subsidy be like in another year. Let’s just have a bold guess:
1. The subsidy index for residential PV projects in 2019 is about 5GW;
2. Subsidy for each KWH power in 2019 is estimated to be 0.2 yuan;
3. Index in 2019 could be used for power plant projects which didn’t get index in the second half year of 2018;
4. The day when policy is announced may also be the time when index is consumed up.
How do you think of the subsidy will be like in the next year? Welcome your discussion and message!